They Will Be Held Accountable

RE: Oscars. What did the critics predict and how did they do?

Who should you listen to next year?

Definitely don't listen to me.

Find out how well the critics predicted the Oscars...

My Analysis
Most critics only made predictions in the major categories (the cowards!). Even though categories like Best Animated only had 3 picks, let's assume that a monkey would pick at least 20%. Hey, even a monkey knew Incredibles was a lock.

My total that night was 13/26 or 50%, and that includes Best Animated Short and the like. Out of the six major categories though, I picked 4 correctly for a respectable 67% total.

I was topped by Stephen Holden and the stunning Ramin Setodeh. I don't really care about that. All I want to do is gloat over the corpses of A.O. Scott and Manohla Dargis - two critics, as I've often complained in these pages, that are out of touch.

Eat my dust, suckaz!

Here's a bonus. The predictions of AP Critics David Germain and Christy LeMire:

BEST PICTURE
GERMAIN: After seesawing from "The Aviator" to "Million Dollar Baby," I'm back on board with Martin Scorsese's biopic of Howard Hughes. ...
LEMIRE: ... "Million Dollar Baby" changes every molecule in your body, making you feel as if you've just gone 12 rounds, too. I'd love to see "Sideways" take it - lovely, subtle and poignant, it topped my top 10 list - but it's too small and too talky to win best picture. (Hopefully it will be duly honored in the adapted screenplay category with Oscars for Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor.)

BEST DIRECTOR
LEMIRE: "Million Dollar Baby" wins and Eastwood wins. ... It's a travesty that Scorsese didn't win for "Taxi Driver" or "Raging Bull" or "GoodFellas," but I have a hard time accepting the theory that he will finally get his Oscar this year as a sort of lifetime achievement award.
GERMAIN: ... "The Aviator" and "Million Dollar Baby" might end up splitting the picture and directing prizes, and if so, it's more likely Scorsese will win here while "Baby" takes best film.

BEST ACTOR
GERMAIN: ... It's almost supernatural, how Foxx captured the cadences, body language and spirit of the man. Add in the fond sentiment for Charles, who died last year, and there's no way Foxx can lose.
LEMIRE: Yeah, you're right, this one's easy. ...

BEST ACTRESS
LEMIRE: This one's easy, too. In the rematch between Swank and Bening, which Swank won five years ago with her startling performance in "Boys Don't Cry," Swank wins again. ...
GERMAIN: ... I'll stick with Swank, but the aging-actress theme may resonate on Bening's behalf; who knows when and if her colleagues will have another chance to give her an Oscar?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
GERMAIN: ... Church and Owen were excellent but haven't a prayer against Freeman.
LEMIRE: I love it, we get to disagree again! ... Owen, showing unexpected range, has the most complicated role in a complicated movie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
LEMIRE: Madsen provides the earthy, quiet soul of "Sideways." I'd love to see her win it - and considering that she's a former B-movie actress, this is the kind of comeback that Hollywood loves. But Blanchett completely embodies the big, showy, potentially daunting role of Katharine Hepburn in "The Aviator." ...
GERMAIN: Since we wholeheartedly agree on Blanchett, I have room for a smug retort on supporting actor. Clive Owen over Morgan Freeman? To quote Frasier Crane from "Cheers," what color is the sky in your world? But you are sane enough to side with Blanchett... As for Madsen, in any other year, her wine-as-metaphor-for-life speech alone might have earned her the Oscar.

UPDATE: This critic prediction chart found via Craig's MovieBlog.